A focus on abortion rights may not be enough to save Democrats from economic concerns


Washington
CNN

In late June, the Supreme Court ruled in Roe v. When he made his decision to impeach Wade, Democrats had an announcement.

“This fall, Roe is on the ballot,” President Joe Biden declared in a defiant speech at the White House just hours after the ruling.

Not so fast.

With the midterm elections just three weeks away, it remains to be seen whether Democrats’ emphasis on abortion rights in campaigns across the country will be enough to help Congress hold on to voters’ economic concerns.

good The news for Democrats is that the Supreme Court ruling appears to have galvanized some voters. For example, 50% of registered voters said the Supreme Court decision made them more motivated to vote in the next month, up 7 points from July, when the same question was asked just weeks after the ruling. went down Half of voters in states with complete abortion bans also said their state’s abortion laws made them more motivated to vote.

Women especially motivated by Supreme Court decision, new poll finds: About 3 in 5 women ages 18 to 49 say they’re more likely to vote next month, citing overturning Roe as a motivating factor.

Bad The news for Democrats is that a recent CNN/SSRS poll found that the economy remains a top focus for voters, with 90% of them saying their vote was very important or very important. Fewer – 72% – said the same about abortion.

The economy and inflation become more important in competitive congressional districts. While 59% of registered voters nationally say the economy is very important to their vote, that rose to 67% in those regions, and the share that inflation is important rose from 56% to 64%.

That’s bad news for Democrats, because those issues — in addition to being a big part of GOP messaging on the airwaves — are still everywhere in the news today.

A key inflation report released Thursday showed consumer prices were hotter than expected in September, punishing Americans and giving the Federal Reserve license to keep pace with historic rate hikes.

On a monthly basis, general consumer prices increased by 0.4% compared to August, according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists predicted that the monthly number would rise by 0.2%.

On the year, prices rose by 8.2% in September. That’s slower than the 8.3% increase seen in August, but a faster pace than economists had forecast last month.

Ugly It’s news for Democrats who may be in the House. While the Senate is still up for grabs, most nonpartisan analysts agree that Republicans are in a good position to flip the lower chamber, with CNN’s Harry Enten writing that the chances of a “red wave” should not be discounted.

Across the nation, voters are deeply divided on the overall vote — 46 percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 44 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, which measures who. the party’s candidate voters would support them in their House district. (The survey includes the six most recent national polls that measure the opinions of registered or likely voters.)

But in competitive congressional districts, Democratic support among likely voters declines and preferences tilt toward Republicans, according to a recent CNN SSRS poll: 48% of voters in that group preferred the Republican candidate, 43% the Democrat.

  • Voters were more likely to say the Republican nominee has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems (32%) than the Democratic nominee (28%).
  • In a stark partisan divide, Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to see their party’s nominees as having a clear plan to fix the problems (71% of Republicans said the GOP nominees have such a plan, compared to 59% of Democrats). their party’s candidates).
  • A broad swath of voters — 41 percent nationwide, including 62 percent of independent voters — said they don’t see a clear plan from either party’s candidates to solve the problems.

Taken together, it’s clear that Roe is on the ballot. It is not so clear that it will be the decisive benefit that the Democrats were hoping for.