A tropical storm, snow and record heat could sway voters on Tuesday

Editor’s note: A version of this article originally appeared in CNN Weather Brief, a weekly weather bulletin released every Monday. You can sign up here to receive weekly and prominent storms.


On this election day, all types of weather can be rain, snow, heat, cold and even the effects of a tropical storm, depending on which region of the country you live in.

Weather can play a big role in voter turnout on Election Day. Some studies have found that warm temperatures can motivate voters to turn out, but rain and snow can deter them. So here is the region by region forecast for Tuesday.

In Florida, a tropical storm or hurricane is expected to make landfall this week, which could affect the state starting on Election Day. If a hurricane does occur, it would be unusual, since one has not hit the US in nearly 40 years in November.

Nicole will bring rain and gusty winds to Florida and the Southeast coast beginning Tuesday. It is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall in Florida on Wednesday night.

That means Election Day will be the last day for Florida residents to prepare before conditions begin to deteriorate that night.

“Onshore winds will begin to increase in the afternoon and evening (Tuesday), along with strong gales that will reach the East Coast and move inland,” the National Weather Service in Miami said. “Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph near the coast can gust to 30 mph during rain and storm surges.”

You can read more about Subtropical Storm Nicole here.

Follow Nicole in real time

In Florida and the rest of the South, the weather on Tuesday should be calm, with mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures.

Record highs will continue in some states along the Gulf Coast, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees higher.

Mobile, Alabama could see a high of 85 degrees on Tuesday, which would tie the record set in 1935. Pensacola, Fla., could also set a record high with temperatures forecast to reach 84 degrees. And Jackson, Mississippi, may be close to breaking the current record of 86 degrees.

These warm temperatures with Gulf moisture will be voting day.

“The warmest temperatures will be during this time frame, with highs in the mid-80s on Tuesday,” the Jackson weather service said.

The West will win the award for worst Election Day weather. An area of ​​low pressure will move up the California coast this week, bringing flooding rains, heavy snow and gusty winds across much of the west.

Nevada’s swing state will make for some pretty bad weather on Tuesday. There will be a nasty storm at the start of this week, with the worst of the weather expected on Tuesday.

Wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph are forecast for central and eastern Nevada over higher ground. “It will be possible to throw dust, which may reduce visibility,” warns the Elko weather service.

Snow accumulation in central and northern Nevada will be 5 inches in the valleys and 10 inches in the mountains, where winds will gust to 35 mph. Winter weather alerts and high wind alerts are in place for much of the state.

In California, this will be the first significant storm of the season, and possibly many the most rainfall the state has seen since March.

“The potential for these higher rain rates poses a risk of flooding and debris flows to first- and second-year burn scars in LA County,” the Los Angeles weather service said.

3 inches of rain is expected in coastal areas and valleys, while 5 inches of precipitation is expected in the mountains. Heavy rain can produce rain rates of half an inch per hour. Gusty winds will also be a major concern causing difficult travel conditions, downed trees and power outages.

“The potential for damaging wind gusts of 70 mph in the foothills, and locally 60 mph in the valley floor,” the Los Angeles Weather Service warned.

The Sierra is expected to get 12 to 20 inches of snow above 6,000 feet; snow, rain and wind will create dangerous conditions on the roads on Election Day.

Elsewhere in the West, the weather is much milder, but cold. Record highs may fall in colder afternoon highs for many.

Highs in eastern Washington will enter the 20s on Tuesday as wind chills make them feel like teenagers. In northern Montana, high temperatures on Tuesday may only reach the single digits as wind chills make temperatures feel like 15 below zero – yikes!

We go from the worst weather to the best weather on Election Day, which we’ll find in the Northeast.

A cold front will move through, ending those record warm temperatures. Election Day highs will be in the 50s and lows in the 60s across much of the Northeast. The bright sun should prevail.

Although the forecast is a bit more seasonal for this region, it will be a stark contrast to last weekend’s weather – which was more summer-like – as the Philadelphia weather service office stated:

“Compared to the last few days, it will be considerably colder, and a gust of wind will help increase the impact. Most areas will remain in the 50s, which will come as a surprise to those accustomed to several days in the 70s.”

The area of ​​the Midwest most likely to be affected by Election Day weather is Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

A storm system will begin moving in Tuesday and “set the stage for what could be the most significant precipitation event we’ve seen in the Twin Cities metro all year,” the Twin Cities weather service office said.

The area could get 2 to 3 inches of rain with this system in some drought affected areas.

Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal across much of the Midwest, mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s by Election Day.