More than 5.8 million votes have been cast in 39 states in the 2022 midterm elections, according to data from election officials Edison Research and Catalist.
In the battleground states of Arizona and Pennsylvania, Democrats are trailing Republicans in early voting, according to data from Catalist, which provides data, analysis and other advocacy services to Democrats, academics and nonprofits. to find out who is voting before November.
This is not surprising, and these data are not predictive of final results. In recent years, Democrats have been more likely to vote before Election Day, while Republicans have preferred to vote on Election Day.
It’s too early to tell how high voter turnout will be this election cycle, but overall early voting numbers remain on par with the 2018 election, which had the highest midterm turnout in history.
In Arizona, the Democratic vote is 44% of the pre-election vote, and the Republican vote is 33%. That’s similar to the return of the pre-election vote at this point in the 2020 cycle, when Democrats were 45% and Republicans were 31%.
However, this is a recent change in Arizona. At this point in the run-up to the 2018 election, Republicans returned more votes to 46% to Democrats’ 34%.
The 2020 election, amid the Covid-19 pandemic and efforts by former President Donald Trump and his allies to challenge the integrity of mail-in ballots, could change the way people vote.
Democrats’ comfort with pre-election polls pales in comparison to Republicans in Pennsylvania, a state with one of the most competitive Senate elections this cycle.
Of the more than 420,000 votes cast in the Keystone State, 73% were cast by Democrats and 19% by Republicans.
That’s actually a small improvement for Republicans compared to this point in 2020, when 75% of the pre-election vote went to Democrats and 17% to Republicans.
Early voting has begun in most states with competitive Senate elections, including Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina. Early voting in Nevada begins Saturday.
North Carolina held its first day of early voting on Thursday, with more than 186,000 votes cast in the state. The North Carolina State Board of Elections reported an increase from the first day of early voting in 2018, when more than 155,000 votes were cast.
After the first day of early voting, Democratic votes were 42 percent of the pre-election vote, and Republican votes were about 29 percent, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
Much of the pre-election vote in the Tar Heel State has come from unaffiliated voters. As of Friday, unaffiliated voters had cast more than 29 percent of the primary ballot.