Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the chance of a recession next year is “significant.”


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Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said on Thursday that it is “significantly” likely that the United States will enter a recession next year. Recession became “almost inevitable” when inflation rates rose above 5%, he said. On the year, prices rose by 8.2% in September.

But this recession will be relatively short and mild. he added. “Without a doubt, I don’t think it will be like that [2008] like the financial crisis… or the horrible things that happened after the pandemic started. Summers told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room.”

But some pain will be inevitable.

“It is possible that unemployment will rise to 6%, that is very real and not easy thing”, he add “But people have to understand that it’s better to do that than to let inflation accelerate and let everybody expect inflation, and then you have a bigger set of difficulties.“.

The US economy has been warning of the next recession for months. In the past week alone, several economic leaders — including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos — have expressed concern that a recession is imminent. There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession next year, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research. The main US stock markets, on the other hand, have fallen.

Simply put Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference that there is still a way to get inflation under control without triggering a recession. But Powell acknowledged that the road has tightened and Americans are feeling more pain as the Fed has been forced to resort to sharp interest rate hikes to bring down inflation.

The Federal Reserve will meet again in early November. Persistent inflation means the Fed will likely have to continue its aggressive and largely unprecedented string of interest rate hikes.

“I think the Fed should do whatever it takes to contain inflation,” said Summers, who has been critical of the Fed in the past.

“The Biden administration may also consider a range of cost-cutting measures,” he said. That could mean making it easier for energy companies to start drilling or fracking, reducing tariffs and taxes on commodities, and ending regulations on the shipping of goods from the United States.

But “there are no silver bullets or miracle cures,” Summers said, especially not in the three weeks before the U.S. election.