(The three races that swung Democratic this week are Arizona’s 1st District, Arizona’s 2nd District, and Texas’ 28th District).
Now, it’s worth pointing out here — as Wasserman does — that Republicans still only need to win six of the 31 races that Cook rates as “tosses” to control the House, which is entirely doable on that count. The history of midterm elections strongly favors the party without a president.
But what changes in Cook do it it suggests that the Republican wave that seemed to be building as recently as this summer appears to have effectively disintegrated.
But that doesn’t happen. In fact, the opposite is happening: the Democrats’ chances, at least in some races, are strengthening as the election approaches.
This has several important implications (assuming the general trend continues for the next seven weeks is anyone’s guess):
1) Even if the Republicans take the majority of the House in November, they may do so by a small margin, and it will be more difficult to pass their agenda.
2) This would empower groups like the House Freedom Caucus, which, as long as its members stay together, can exert considerable control over the Republican agenda.
3) Democrats would have an easier path back to the majority in 2024, when the presidential turnout should help them get their base to the polls.
point: The change in ratings for some seats may not look like much. But the sign of these changes could be critically important to the shape of politics over the next two years.