Midterms: More than 17.5 million pre-election votes have been cast


As of Friday, more than 17.5 million pre-election votes had been cast in 46 states, according to data from election officials Edison Research and Catalist.

Early voter turnout has kept pace with the 2018 midterm elections, but it’s too early to tell if total voter turnout will meet or exceed the year’s record, as the 2020 election cycle could have a big impact on voting habits.

Two states – Florida and Texas – cast more than 2 million votes each. Almost 1.9 million votes were cast in California, and more than 1.3 million in Georgia.

Some of the voter data comes from Catalist, which provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofits to help track who is voting ahead of November.

Unlike most battleground states this cycle, Republicans in Florida have cast more votes than Democrats this year, according to data from the Florida Department of State.

Some Florida counties began in-person voting this week, but all counties are set to begin voting on Saturday.

While the margin is narrow — Florida Republicans cast 41 percent of the primary vote to Democrats’ 40 percent — it’s a reversal from this point two years ago, when Republicans cast 35 percent of the primary vote and Democrats 43 percent, according to Catalist.

Still, it’s a return to the pattern of 2018, when Florida Republicans held a 43 percent to 39 percent advantage over Democrats in early voting at this point in the cycle.

That year, Floridians elected Republican Ron DeSantis as governor, while Gov. Rick Scott unseated Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, also by a narrow margin. DeSantis is seeking a second term this year, while senior state Sen. Marco Rubio is running for a third term. Both are up for grabs next month.

Pre-election polls in Nevada tell a different story.

Democrats have cast 42% of the pre-election vote so far, compared to 35% for Republicans, according to Catalist.

In 2018, Silver State Republicans held a narrow lead at this point in the cycle, with 41% of the vote to Democrats’ 40%.

Nevada will face several contested races this year, with Republicans targeting Gov. Steve Sisolak, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and three Democratic members of the US House.

Pre-election data is not predictive of final results. In recent years, Democrats have been more likely to vote before Election Day, while Republicans have preferred to vote on Election Day.

In Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are facing off in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, the pre-election poll is about the same as it was two years ago.

Republicans have 20% of the pre-election vote – the same percentage they made up at this point in 2020 – and Democrats 72%, up slightly from 71% at this point two years ago.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will make a rare appearance in Philadelphia on Friday evening as they campaign to boost Pennsylvania Democrats in the run-up to the election.

In Georgia, data shows that the pre-election population is older than in 2020.

Voters between the ages of 22 and 29 cast only 4% of pre-election votes. At this point in the 2020 cycle, they made up 7% of the pre-election votes.

30 to 39 year olds cast 8% of the pre-election vote, down from 10% at this point in 2020. 11% of those who voted in Georgia are between 30 and 49 years old; two years ago, this age group had a share of 13%.

In the Peach State, 32 percent of pre-election voters are between the ages of 50 and 64, up from 29 percent in 2020, and 43 percent are 65 or older, up from 38 percent at this point in 2020.

Biden, in 2020, was the first Democratic candidate to carry Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. The state also elected two Democratic senators – Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock – in the January 2021 election. Warnock is seeking a full six-year term. next month against Republican Herschel Walker in a race that could decide control of the US Senate. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is also on the ballot as he bids for a second term in a 2018 rematch against Democrat Stacey Abrams.