A new analysis of the 2022 political landscape suggests the winds are blowing at Republicans’ backs with the midterm elections just over two weeks away.
“Republicans close gap in national generic vote after Democrats hold lead for past two months.” Nathan Gonzales writes Inside Elections, a nonpartisan campaign site. “And the GOP lead is developing in a disproportionate number of competitive individual races. The Republicans have always been the favorites to regain the majority of the House; the uncertainty was only a margin”.
In Inside Elections’ most recent House races, a total of 13 races swung in the Republican direction, compared to eight for the Democrats. And among the most competitive House races (rated as “tossups,” or skewed in favor of one party), nine went for Republicans, three times the number that went for Democrats.
Inside Elections also raised the ceiling for Republican gains, with midterm results showing the GOP picking up between eight and 25 seats. “If late-deciding voters break against Democrats or if Democratic enthusiasm dips a bit, Republicans could see bigger gains,” Gonzales wrote.
Beyond the overall forecast, the most interesting is the geographic location of the races going in the direction of the Republicans. Several are concentrated in the northeast, which has become increasingly hospitable to the party in recent elections, especially after the emergence of Donald Trump as its leading figure.
Of the nine most competitive districts that swung Republican, six of them – New Jersey’s 7th, New York’s 3rd, 17th, 18th and 19th, and Rhode Island’s 2nd – are in the Northeast, suggesting regional strength. He has not been seen partying in recent years.
Gonzales warned that even small changes in the national environment in recent weeks can make a big difference for Republicans when the elections are held.
point: After almost two years of campaigning, this election is turning out to be what we thought it would be, good for Republicans.