The political mood favors Republicans on the economy and inflation, three weeks out from the midterms



CNN

The economy and inflation are the top issues three weeks after congressional elections, with Democrats questioning their chances of retaining control of Congress, according to new polls released in recent days.

Widespread impressions of a bad and worsening economy, combined with dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden and the way things are going in the country, suggest the nation’s overall political mood — which turned slightly more favorable to Democrats after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade – may tilt more to the Republican side.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 65% of voters believe the economy is getting worse and 68% say the Biden administration could do more to fight inflation. In a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday, 64 percent of voters say the United States is headed in the wrong direction, with the economy (26 percent) and inflation (18 percent) the only issues named by double-digit shares. is the most important issue facing the country today among likely voters, with all other issues at 8% or less. And 70 percent of registered voters say they’re not happy with the way things are in the U.S. today, according to an AP-NORC poll released Monday, including majorities across parties.

According to the Times/Siena poll, Republican congressional candidates are favored 49 percent to 45 percent among Democratic voters, a split that is within the poll’s sampling error. In the CBS/YouGov poll, likely voter preferences break 47% for Republicans and 45% for Democrats, also within the poll’s margin of error.

A CNN Poll of Polls average finds an even split in generic polls, with both Democratic and Republican candidates holding 46% of voters in the new Poll of Polls, compared to a narrow 3-point tilt for Democrats on average. recently at the end of September.

An average of three out of five polls are reporting results for likely voters. A fourth, Fox News, which showed Democrats 44% to Republicans 41% among registered voters, finds a 47% Republican to 46% Democratic split among those who say they feel confident they will vote this fall.

Narrow splits in generic voting preferences often indicate Republican gains in the House. Generally speaking, voter preferences for partisan candidates do not always directly affect House seat share. In some recent elections, Republicans have won a larger share of the seats than their share of the national popular vote, in part due to redistricting.

Recent polls suggest that an expanded focus on the economy ended federal protections for abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. That it has halted the democratic momentum gained after the Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling. A CNN poll published last week found that 9 in 10 registered voters say the economy is important to their vote, and 72% say abortion is that important. Registered voters who consider the economy to be the most important factor in their vote are significantly outnumbered by Republicans in their districts, 53% to 38%.

The same poll showed that 48 percent of likely voters favored the Republican nominee in competitive congressional districts that will ultimately decide control of the House, while 43 percent of that group favored the Democrat. Registered voters in these districts are more likely than nationally to cite economic concerns as very important in their decision to vote, and these voters split even more sharply toward the Republican candidate (56% to 30%).

Over the course of this year, the momentum in the House race has shifted from a clear GOP advantage to an environment where Democrats looked more competitive, and now appears to be tilting toward Republicans. The nationally tied race for Republicans in current polling averages is weaker than polls would have suggested before Dobbs’ decision. Earlier this year, high-quality polls consistently found the GOP had a significant lead over Democrats on a generic ballot question. Democrats narrowed that margin significantly over the summer, finishing with a narrow numerical advantage in most average and general vote polls. But the only poll that met CNN’s reporting standards at the time found Democrats with a large lead among voters. Current average polls do not show a clear leader between the two parties in the race for control of the House.

The CNN Poll Poll is an average of the five most recent national polls of registered or likely voters on the generic preferences of voters in constituencies that meet CNN’s standards. The survey includes results from the NPR/Marist poll from September 27-29, the CNN poll from September 3-October 5, the CBS News/YouGov poll from October 12-14, the Fox News poll from October 9-12 and the New York Times/Siena College poll from October 9-12.