The three tables showing the state of pre-election voting in this year’s major states



CNN

Early voting has increased since the 2018 midterms across the country and in four of the six states in the 2022 midterms.

More than 30 million people have already voted in 46 states, according to data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist. Mail-in voting has been less common in 2018 and early voting is still below the 2020 presidential election. Presidential elections are becoming more turnout and many states have expanded early voting and postal voting due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Voters in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan have already cast more than a million votes each. Nearly 2 million have voted early in Georgia, a 29% jump from this point in 2018.

So far the pre-election electorate is somewhat younger, more democratic and more diverse than in 2018, but not as much as in 2020.

Georgia is seeing strong early voting turnout, especially among black voters. 140,000 more black voters have cast ballots so far in 2018 than in 2018. Although there are 354,000 fewer black voters this year than in 2020, black voters so far make up the same share of Georgia’s early voters in 2018. an even higher share than in 2020.

In addition to high black voter turnout, the majority of early voters in Georgia who did not vote in 2018 are non-white. Nearly 40% of non-voters in the Peach State are of a non-white race or ethnicity, a higher share than in any other state.

15,000 more Asian Americans vote early and 12,000 more Latino early voters in Georgia than at this point in 2018. The fastest population growth in Georgia since 2010 has been among Asian Americans and Latinos, according to the US Census Bureau.

A similar share of white voters is voting in most of six key states than in the 2018 primaries.

Younger voters – ages 18-21 – are turning out in greater numbers in six major states than at this point in the 2018 general election. The number of Michigan’s youngest voters has grown from less than 500 in 2018 — before absentee voting was available to everyone in the state — to more than 21,000 this year. In every state except Wisconsin, voters aged 18-21 make up roughly the same or larger share of the electorate in the 2020 election than they did this time.

A major factor driving early turnout among young voters, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania, is the introduction of no-excuse-by-mail voting in 2020.

“It often happens that when you make voting easier, young people turn out more,” said Charlotte Hill, director of the Democracy Policy Initiative at UC-Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy. “That’s because many steps in the voting process are disproportionately difficult for young people. When you make these steps easier, everyone benefits, but especially those who had a harder time at first.”

However, voters aged 18-21 still do not make up more than 2% of early voting in these key states.

Voters over 65 traditionally make up a disproportionate share of a state’s electorate, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz told CNN. This year is no exception. So far more than half of early voters in every state – except Georgia and Nevada – are seniors.

While there are fewer older voters who have voted early in each state than in the last two elections, seniors still make up a larger share of early voters than in 2020.

In those key states for which data are available (Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania), the share of Democrats at this early stage of the general election is slightly higher not only in 2018, but also in 2020. That includes Arizona and Nevada, where pre-election Republican voters outnumbered Democrats at this point in 2018.

Independent voters are also turning out early in Arizona and Nevada, where more than a quarter of all early primary voters are independent. For Nevadans ages 18-21, the gap between Democrats and independents is roughly 7 percentage points.

The high Democratic turnout doesn’t mean Democrats are going to eliminate the general election, but it likely indicates a preference among Democrats for early morning and mail-in voting.

“I think what we’re seeing this year is just a continuation of the voting patterns we saw in 2020,” Abramowitz said.

Except among white Arizona voters, Democrats lead in the primary vote among the major age and racial or ethnic groups in all three states. However, large numbers of primary voters in Arizona and Nevada are independents, which reduces the Democratic share of the vote in those states. In Pennsylvania, so far more than 80% of non-white voters are Democrats. In Arizona and Nevada, however, roughly half of non-white voters are Democrats.

A big reason for that, at least in Nevada, has to do with the voter registration system, said Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Nevada adopted automatic voter registration in 2020, where a voter is assigned a “party” designation by default, he said.

“Only the highly motivated will take the extra step, so taking the extra step instead of opting out increases the number of people in the program,” Gill said.

“And if all of those newly registered nonpartisan voters had actively turned out, that could really say something about the current state of Nevada voters.”