Two numbers that should worry Republicans about Trump 2024


It’s hard to find anyone these days who a) pays attention to Republican politics and b) believes that Donald Trump will not run for a third term in 2024.

But even as Republicans grapple with what appears to be an inevitable outcome, there are signs that Trump as the GOP nominee is a tough proposition for the party in 2024.

There are two such signs in the latest New York Times/Siena College national poll of registered voters.

1) 54% believe that in his actions after the 2020 election, Trump “went so far as to threaten American democracy”. (Only 38% said they were “exercising their right to stand for election”).

2) 51% said Trump has “committed serious federal crimes” in relation to the ongoing investigations into him.

Note those two data points. The majority of voters believe that the former president of the United States actively threatened American democracy and committed federal crimes.

And yet, despite these numbers, Republicans – or at least the Republican base – will once again nominate him to the highest office in the land.

Which, well, looks like a risk?

(Note: In the Times/Siena poll, Trump has 42% to Joe Biden’s 45% in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race.)

The challenge for the Republicans is to survive Trump terribly Popular with the GOP base. That would make it very difficult for anyone – even Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – to beat in a first fight.

But numbers like these should worry Republicans about what they would get for Trump as the nominee. Will voters really support a candidate they believe has broken federal law?

point: Welcome to Trump’s invention: perfect (or close) in the general election primaries and in deep trouble.